The range of forecasts could reflect the uncertainties surrounding the diffusion of the new product or technology.
If one or more analogs give similar results (as compared to the other analogs), it would be useful to carefully explore what might explain why those forecasts are similar to each other, and also why they are different from the forecasts from the other analogs.
Once the user is satisfied that the analogs are all appropriate, then the forecasts reflect the intrinsic uncertainties about the future. In that case, it would be best for the user to explore various strategies to prepare for the very different futures that might evolve.
Such strategies include hedging, contingency planning, “bet-the-farm,” as well as “core strategies” to implement today regardless of which forecast turns out to be true in the future.
Was this article helpful?
That’s Great!
Thank you for your feedback
Sorry! We couldn't be helpful
Thank you for your feedback
Feedback sent
We appreciate your effort and will try to fix the article